big carryover for a wednesday card. i will be going after the pick -6, but here's my analysis of the card.
race 2: french debutante. conventional wisdom is to not back a firster routing, but routing on turf is a hell of a lot easier than routing on dirt and this field is horrible. souvenir party is the likely chalk, and she's destined for claimerville soon anyway. willing to back the lynch firster , despite his shoddy stats with youngsters. believe this one can really run and if she can get three hooves on the ground, she could still beat this field.
race 3: good day sir. this filly is on the upswing and just moved from the very low % garcia, to the high % cardenas barn. this one will dole out all the pace from the inside and would be my pick six single if not for the other pesky speed in here.
race 4: favorites look like the right ones- don'ttsellmeshort and levee town. these two year olds can improve leaps and bounds in a short time, but think the ones with experience should prevail. the ward firster one smart cat has worked both well and poorly of late, so don't know which horse will show up today. may have to go 3 or 4 deep in the pick-6 sequence.
race 5: sabalicious. even though pine for java is the horse to beat in here, i'm going to back sabalicious to win (and use them both in the p-6). sabalicious loses solis to 'java, but pval is an upgrade and he should have him pressing the pace all the way home.
race 7: chiselling. i've been a huge fan of sarafan for a long time and he's a top-class miler on his best days and has been consistent as hell over the last couple of years. however, he seems to find trouble quite a bit for horse of his class level and i'm giong to play against him in his first start back since running at sha tin. chisselling, of course, is coming off an even longer layoff, but this four year old juddmonte blue blood is half to decarchy, honest lady, chester house and of course empire maker (your belmont winner). rumor is this one is training like a freight train in the mornings and he should show typical improvement between 3 and 4. will be finishing fast. problem is the lack of pace in this race as kachamandia is the only one with any speed at all. this will be an all-out sprint for home and think chiselling will prove best under solis.
race 8: just me. would only look at tizwar and patriot dream in here to complete the exacta,trifecta. they both have the experience edge over just me, but the shirreffs trainee has been working well and benchmark is an underrated debut sire. gate to wire in the finale under valdivia.
race 2: french debutante. conventional wisdom is to not back a firster routing, but routing on turf is a hell of a lot easier than routing on dirt and this field is horrible. souvenir party is the likely chalk, and she's destined for claimerville soon anyway. willing to back the lynch firster , despite his shoddy stats with youngsters. believe this one can really run and if she can get three hooves on the ground, she could still beat this field.
race 3: good day sir. this filly is on the upswing and just moved from the very low % garcia, to the high % cardenas barn. this one will dole out all the pace from the inside and would be my pick six single if not for the other pesky speed in here.
race 4: favorites look like the right ones- don'ttsellmeshort and levee town. these two year olds can improve leaps and bounds in a short time, but think the ones with experience should prevail. the ward firster one smart cat has worked both well and poorly of late, so don't know which horse will show up today. may have to go 3 or 4 deep in the pick-6 sequence.
race 5: sabalicious. even though pine for java is the horse to beat in here, i'm going to back sabalicious to win (and use them both in the p-6). sabalicious loses solis to 'java, but pval is an upgrade and he should have him pressing the pace all the way home.
race 7: chiselling. i've been a huge fan of sarafan for a long time and he's a top-class miler on his best days and has been consistent as hell over the last couple of years. however, he seems to find trouble quite a bit for horse of his class level and i'm giong to play against him in his first start back since running at sha tin. chisselling, of course, is coming off an even longer layoff, but this four year old juddmonte blue blood is half to decarchy, honest lady, chester house and of course empire maker (your belmont winner). rumor is this one is training like a freight train in the mornings and he should show typical improvement between 3 and 4. will be finishing fast. problem is the lack of pace in this race as kachamandia is the only one with any speed at all. this will be an all-out sprint for home and think chiselling will prove best under solis.
race 8: just me. would only look at tizwar and patriot dream in here to complete the exacta,trifecta. they both have the experience edge over just me, but the shirreffs trainee has been working well and benchmark is an underrated debut sire. gate to wire in the finale under valdivia.
